Prediction – Indeed will nip at the heels of HotJobs in 2007

   

2007 is the year that vertical job search leader Indeed moves into 4^th place and threatens an asleep-at-the-switch HotJobs.

   

Here’s what we know about Indeed:

   

-          Indeed is currently 8^th in the employment category (based on Hitwise data) with a market share of 1.89%, virtually tied with America’s Job Bank (in 7^th at 1.90%, but scheduled to cease operation this summer);

    

-          Indeed saw its market share increase by 302% during 2006 (based on Hitwise data); and,

   

-          Indeed was recently recognized as the ‘Best Job Search Engine’ by job-hunt.org.

   

   

Here’s what we know about HotJobs:

   

-          HotJobs is currently 3^rd in the employment category with a market share of 5.33% (based on Hitwise data);

   

-          HotJobs saw visits drop by 18.4% during the past six months (based on Hitwise data); and,

   

-          Five years ago, prior to merging with Yahoo!, HotJobs was the number one career site (according to Media Metrix), with an 8.6% market share.

   

   

Projections for 2007:

   

-          Indeed’s market share will increase by approximately 120% … down from a 300% gain in 2006 … resulting in a year-end market share of 4.1%;

   

-          HotJobs market share will decline by 20%, resulting in a year-end market share of 4.3%;

   

-          Monster and My Monster will continue to lose share to niche and vertical sites; and,

   

-          Indeed will be preparing to bust into the ‘big three’ during early 2008; or positioning for a buyout.  Either way, 2007 will be an exciting year for Indeed.

   

Comments

[Jeff Tokarz]

Bob -

No doubt Indeed is going to have a break-out year in '07 ... at the expense of Monster and HotJobs!

However, these Web properties (despite their bloat, legacy technology, poor/indifferent management, etc.) remain formidable competitors.

Indeed has the potential - as does SimplyHired and Just-Posted.com - to grab market share from these firms one job seeker at a time.

Jeff Tokarz
CEO & Founder
Just-Posted Inc.
http://www.Just-Posted.com

[victor victory]

let's not forget that indeed.com still relies on hotjobs and the like for content. I think that making a statement to the effect of 'grabbing market share' from your content providers is not the way to get ahead.. let's not forget that should monster, hotjobs, careeerbuilder and the other market elephants perceive the verticals as a threat they can just as easy close the door on them, and drop the job numbers on the verticals considerably, this would reduce their usefulness to job seekers and would lead to a decline in their market share and not an increase...

[bob wilson]

Thanks for posting feedback Jeff.

I get the sense that the big three job sites are in the 'cash cow' stage of the product lifecycle ... very little investment in innovation, high investment in marketing and profit maximization.

These sites will be around for many years, and their investment in branding and advertising will ensure that the decline in market share will be gradual.

But without innovation, they will be supplanted in the market.

[bob wilson]

You make excellent points Victor. A year ago I worried about the possibility of content providers raising walls around their sites. And in fact, Craigslist has done this ... but with no ill affect on the vertical search engines.

As time passes, the vertical search engines become less dependent on other job boards for content ... they're continuing to build out their sources, collecting jobs directly from employer sites.

Too, the big job boards sell 'impressions' ... without high traffic, they can't command high rates; so it's not too surprising that the big boards are some of the largest advertisers on vertical search sites.

My guess ... if all of the big job boards built walls around their content, advertisers would howl about the reduced exposure, demand lower rates, and the rate of direct indexing of employer jobs would accelerate ... simply hastening the transition from the pay-to-post model (enjoyed by the big boards) to the pay-per-click model of vertical search.

[Alexander Kharlamov]

It's pretty amazing that the largest one of them is less than 14% of the market share. To me (granted, I'm not a specialist in online job sites at all), that means that the market is still out there for grabs, which should be good news to smaller, hungry sites that you mentioned.

[bob wilson]

Hi Alexander. I agree that there is plenty of room for market change; but it's not too surprising that no site is able to dominate when you consider the low cost of market entry plus the number of geographic, industry, occupation and lifestage specialty sites that attract niche audiences.

[JustJobs editor]

Vertical search engines will continue to grow and snatch market share from the big boards. The market is ripe for change, and more and more job searchers will be looking to search in industry, function, and geographic based job boards. Indeed's rise is great news for all.